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Draft Strategy

Why Kyle Pitts Will Disappoint Fantasy Gamers in 2021

by RotoUnderworld, May 19, 2021

Of the 138 tight ends drafted since 2011, only Evan Engram finished his rookie year with a top five fantasy point-scoring season. “But what about that Falcons offense? Wasn’t that the best possible landing spot and doesn’t that guarantee Kyle Pitts to be a top fantasy tight end this year?” When Pitts finishes closer to No. 10 than No. 5, those that took him early in their best ball and redraft leagues will be disappointed.

In best ball and redraft leagues thus far, Pitts is being drafted like a top five fantasy tight end. While he has an impressive profile and draft capital, we have seen players with similar profiles in the past have varying career success levels. Spending a top 60 pick in best ball or a top 2 pick in dynasty rookie drafts on someone other than Pitts is a smarter decision based on history.

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Underworld Rookie Mock Draft Recap #8

by RotoUnderworld, May 5, 2021

Kadarius Toney adds a different and unique element to the Giants offense when considering the skillsets of the players around him. He has the sort of special teams ability the Giants have lacked since the days of Ron Dixon and Willie Ponder, and he’s athletic enough to be used as a decoy X-receiver at worst while he acclimates to the pro game. He is a converted QB, so he has plenty of room to grow, though these kinds of players aren’t usually first round NFL Draft picks. 

While Chris Evans lost the draft capital and landing spot battle to fellow Michigan teammate Nico Collins, his stock didn’t plummet as far as Tamorrion Terry’s. Though he went undrafted, the Seattle WR depth chart is wide open behind D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett, who we advocated selling anyway. If anyone in this class has the potential to be this year’s UDFA gem, why not a guy who was as highly regarded a prospect as Terry was at one point?

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Underworld Rookie Mock Draft Recap #7

by RotoUnderworld, April 28, 2021

With four RotoUnderworld SuperFlex/TE Premium mock drafts in the books, the top five in ADP has emerged as Trevor Lawrence, Justin Fields, Najee Harris, Travis Etienne, and Trey Lance. It makes sense. Secure either the most highly regarded prospect in the class, an elite running back, or a mobile quarterback that oozes fantasy upside.

The strength of the class at the QB position is pushing plenty of upside into the second round of SuperFlex rookie drafts. Exciting wide receiver prospects Jaylen Waddle, Terrace Marshall, and Elijah Moore can all be drafted with an early-to-mid second. Kenny Gainwell did gain well to the tune of 12-pounds and continues to creep up into the mid-second round. Pat Freiermuth, Dyami Brown, and Michael Carter continue to be fixtures in the Pick No. 20 to 24 range.

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2021 RotoUnderworld Pre-Draft Seasonal League Mock Draft

by RotoUnderworld, April 28, 2021

Over the last month, we conducted our first RotoUnderworld Redraft Mock Draft of the season. And this is a good page to bookmark and juxtapose with our post-NFL Draft mock that will release next month. We had 14 teams, PPR scoring, and we drafted 15 rounds. Starting lineups consist of 1 QB, 2 RBs, 2 WRs, 1 TE, 1 Flex (RB/WR/TE), a defense, and a kicker.

I did not have Jonathan Taylor going at 1.03 on the bingo card. If Taylor is your guy though, you have no other option because he’s obviously not going to be there in the late second round. Cam Akers and D’Andre Swift went in the first 10 picks as well. That won’t be eye-popping by August.

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The New-Look Bears Backfield Makes David Montgomery an Early-Round Fade

by RotoUnderworld, April 14, 2021

David Montgomery was fantasy football’s RB6 on a points-per-game basis last season. His glut of opportunity led him to average 100.5 Total Yards per Game and 3.6 (No. 7 among qualified running backs) Receptions per Game, score 10 (No. 10) Total Touchdowns, and produce 11 top-24 weekly finishes, including six consecutive top-eight finishes to end the season. With the signing of Damien Williams, however, Montgomery is a clear fade this year based on ADP in redraft leagues.

From Weeks 1-3 when Tarik Cohen was healthy, David Montgomery was fantasy football’s RB26 on a points-per-game basis. Now enter Damien Williams. Usually, targeting ambiguous backfields creates one of the biggest edges in redraft leagues for fantasy gamers, but in the case of the Bears, not one back will offer stand-alone fantasy value unless an injury occurs.

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Underworld Rookie Mock Draft Recap #6

by RotoUnderworld, April 10, 2021

In a 2 QB rookie draft, one would expect it to start QB-QB-QB, and it did from 1.02-1.04. But at the 1.01, our guy Jay Dozier grabbed Najee Harris. After a month of disappointing pro days, Harris was actually one of the big winners after not testing athletically at either Alabama pro day.

With guys like Kellen Mond, Kyle Trask, and Mac Jones getting pushed up boards, it allows players like Jaylen Waddle and Devonta Smith to drop into the early/mid-second round. This is exciting for rookie draft value, which is the key in any draft, and is ultra important in 2021. The late-second to early-third round is the ideal draft position in 2 QB rookie drafts if you are set at the quarterback position.

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Underworld Rookie Mock Draft Recap #5

by RotoUnderworld, April 8, 2021

Without any athletic testing numbers, or even an official height and weight, Devonta Smith is the ultimate black box NFL prospect. But when dealing with a black box prospect who’s also a Heisman Trophy winner, we should be allowed to err on the side of the higher-end Best Comparable Player in the legendary Joe Horn. His Breakout Rating will be helped by his inevitable early round draft selection.

From being undrafted in our first SuperFlex/TE Premium outing to creeping into the fourth round last time and the second round this time, Kellen Mond is slowly working his way up in these mocks. Once the Elite Five signal callers are off the board, the placement of the remaining QBs will largely be determined by draft position/landing spot. The Texas A&M product has a bit of Konami Code appeal to him and can end up being a value by the end of this process.

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Underworld vs RosterWatch Rookie Mock Recap #2

by RotoUnderworld, April 2, 2021

Though Amari Rodgers didn’t pop athletically at his pro day, falling to 3.08 from 2.04 between Underworld vs. RosterWatch mocks is likely an overcorrection for a player with Lynn Bowden and Deebo Samuel among his Best Comparable Players. After letting Nico Collins slip to the Underworld at 4.10 last time, Byron Lambert and the RosterWatch crew ensured his services by taking him at the 3.11 and making us feel All Mixed Up.

Before any athletic testing is even taken into account, Javian Hawkins checked in with a top 10 Breakout Rating among this year’s rookie backs. Even if he falls a bit in the app’s next update once the pro day numbers are accounted for, he’s the kind of player that can overcome Day 3 draft capital and make an impact as a satellite back if he lands on the right team.

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Stranded on 1.01 SuperFlex Island

by RotoUnderworld, March 31, 2021

There’s a lot of QB talent in the NFL already, more is on the way and there’s only so much room at the top of the heap. That’s why Trevor Lawrence, as great as he will undoubtedly become, has a low-end QB1 dynasty ranking. And while, yes, a low-end QB1 is an excellent NFL player, what does that get us in fantasy over a middling signal caller?

I’m not seeing how choosing a QB at 1.01 – even if it’s Lawrence – does not require a moment’s thought. Staying on 1.01 Island and choosing Lawrence sets you up with a good QB for a long time, but means foregoing similar gains that might be out there at other positions – e.g., Travis Etienne, Najee Harris, Javonte Williams, Ja’Marr Chase and Kyle Pitts.

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Fantasy Football Free Agency Winners to Target in 2021 Redraft Leagues

by RotoUnderworld, March 28, 2021

Quietly averaging 13.2 (No. 22 among qualified running backs) Fantasy Points per Game last season on a Broncos team averaging 27.6 (No. 13) Team Run Plays per Game, while splitting touches roughly 16-11 with Philip Lindsay, Gordon is primed to be a high-floor, high-ceiling fantasy asset. High floor because of the proven capability to produce on a capped workload, high ceiling because of the direct path to a three-down role in Lindsay’s absence.

A former first-round pick, Nelson Agholor will unlock a consistent Deep Ball threat for the New England offense. He totaled a 15.1 (No. 5) Average Target Distance mark, 22 (No. 12) Deep Targets, and 1,273 (No. 17) Air Yards with the Raiders last season. Pairing Agholor with Cam Newton’s 53.8-percent (No. 4) Deep Ball Completion Percentage is a match made in heaven, and prevents defenses from stacking the box and playing shallow against the Patriots offense. He is a sturdy draft target as a WR4.

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