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Value Plays

Air Yards DFS Value Index – Week 17

by , January 2, 2021

Calvin Ridley continues his reign as the Air Yards play if you are looking to pay up at the position. This is Ridley’s sixth consecutive appearance in this article dating back to Week 12. Since then, he has failed to finish outside of the top 25 receivers in fantasy points scored each week. He has also flashed WR1 overall upside. He remains a strong play again this week.

Jerry Jeudy’s usage in the Broncos offense saw a huge boon last week. His Air Yards had taken a hit after the rookie wide receiver suffered an ankle injury in Week 12. He made up for his lost opportunities in Week 16, seeing 15 targets and 180 Air Yards. Unfortunately, despite this monster usage, he only finished with 12.1 (No. 35 among qualified wide receivers) fantasy points. Assuming he is fed again, look for him to straighten out the drop issues and perhaps be a week winner in DFS.

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Weighted Opportunities DFS Value Index – Week 17

by , January 1, 2021

Ezekiel Elliott is not the 20-point lock that he used to be, but he still been a reliable producer across most of this year. Despite some struggles in the second half of the season, he averages 14.8 (No. 14 among qualified running backs) Fantasy Points per Game. With his price dropping down to $6,500, this might be the cheapest he will be in his prime. With Dallas’ defense likely to turn the game to a shootout, he has both a solid floor and high upside.

With a potent offense and a horrid defense, the Titans should provide a number of opportunities for Duke Johnson to get involved. In addition, it is possible the team lowers David Johnson’s workload due to his injury history and lack of game importance. Duke is exactly the kind of unreliable, cheap running back that could end up as a big win. At close to the minimum, he has a chance to provide value in all formats.

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Air Yards DFS Value Index – Week 16

by , December 27, 2020

Calvin Ridley has transformed into the Air Yards Value king over the course of the past two weeks. During this time, he has seen over 200 Air Yards and at least 12 targets in each game. He finished as the WR3 in Week 14 and the WR1 in Week 15. Somehow, despite this production, Ridley is not the highest priced receiver on the slate. Exploit this error by DraftKings and make Ridley a mainstay across all formats.

Jerry Jeudy doesn’t seem to be the same after suffering an ankle injury in Week 12. Since then, he has averaged under 50 Air Yards per game. Prior to week 12, he averaged over 100 Air Yards per game. On the off chance that he just needed some additional time for the ankle to get fully healthy he is worth a tournament dart throw. However, beware that his recent usage suggests a different trend for his fantasy potential.

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Top DFS Flex Value Plays for Week 16

by , December 26, 2020

Jamison Crowder has once again separated himself as the alpha receiver for the Jets after hauling in six balls for 66 yards in their first win of the season. The Browns rank No. 25 in Defensive Passing DVOA and their slot CB Kevin Johnson is one of their weakest links, allowing big games to Golden Tate, Corey Davis, and Tyler Boyd this season. Crowder is a much better play on DK thanks to his low pricing and their full-PPR format. 

XFL DFS cheat code Donald Parham is finally getting his shot in the NFL this week with Hunter Henry on the COVID list. Parham isn’t in play on FD due to his price, but he’s the stone-minimum on DK at $2500. His pricing makes him viable as a Flex option if you want to pay up for Chiefs stacks including Travis Kelce. He also correlates well in Chargers stacks given their high team total (26.0) and his projected red zone role. 

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Weighted Opportunities DFS Value Index – Week 15

by , December 20, 2020

Clyde Edwards-Helaire is eligible for the Value Rating threshold for the first time this season, and already sits at the top of these rankings. So far, he has not shown the massive upside many expected as the lead back on the league’s best offense, but he has been remarkably consistent. At only $6,400 he is a great play in all formats. And in a possible shootout with the Saints, the upside is there as well. Eventually, he will combine a multi-touchdown performance with a high yardage game.

It is possible that Bruce Arians gives the workload to Ke’Shawn Vaughn or another back, but more likely that Leonard Fournette comes back into the fold this week. The Falcons also provide an interesting matchup. If the game turns into a shootout, Fournette should get many high value touches. And if the Buccaneers take a strong lead, he would also get a boost to his ground work. It is hard to trust him in cash, but he is definitely worth playing in GPPs.

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Air Yards DFS Value Index – Week 15

by , December 19, 2020

Last week, Calvin Ridley dispelled the notion that he lacks upside without Julio Jones in the lineup. Without Jones in Week 14, Ridley morphed into the passing game for the Falcons, seeing 12 targets and 209 Air Yards. He took this opportunity and turned it into eight receptions, 124 yards and a touchdown, good for 26.4 fantasy points, the WR3 finish on the week. He is set to face a Buccaneers secondary that has been exploitable in recent weeks.

Michael Gallup garners similar opportunity to both CeeDee Lamb and Amari Cooper. However, last week Gallup led all Cowboys receivers with 81 Air Yards, more than both Lamb and Cooper combined. Despite this opportunity, he was outscored by both in fantasy points. Hopefully, he can avoid Richard Sherman in Week 15 and realize some of those Air Yards. Priced at only $3,500, he doesn’t have to do much to return value.

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Top DFS Flex Value Plays for Week 15

by , December 19, 2020

Brandon Aiyuk draws one of the softest possible matchups in the form of Dallas, who has allowed the most receiving touchdowns and the second-most fantasy points to WRs this season. While this matchup has a relatively low 45.5-point total, the Cowboys average 43.2 (No. 1) Team Pass Plays per Game and have the ability to create shootouts. Aiyuk is cheaper on FD relative to the $60,000 salary cap, but the full-PPR and receiving bonus gives him a ridiculous combination of floor and ceiling on DK.

In the games where Emmanuel Sanders has played and Michael Thomas hasn’t, Sanders has averages a solid 14.5 Fantasy Points per Game, including a monster 12-catch, 122-yard performance in Week 5. The Chiefs have allowed the fewest yards to WRs this season, but their cheap salaries make it easy for them to hit value. Most cash lineups will have multiple Saints players this week, so playing both Sanders and Tre’Quan Smith is a viable strategy. 

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Free Square DFS Running Backs for Week 15

by , December 16, 2020

J.K. Dobbins has arguably been the most impressive rookie RB this season. He’s averaged fewer than 10 touches per game, but his efficiency has been off the charts. He boasts a 6.2-percent (No. 6 among qualified RBs) Breakaway Run Rate, highlighting his explosive playmaking ability. While he’s clearly capable of ripping off chunk plays, he also sports a 4.8 (No. 4) True Yards Per Carry mark, meaning he’s consistently churning out solid gains without his Breakaway Runs.

Ronald Jones’ status was already in doubt with a broken pinkie, but he now has landed on the COVID list, meaning he’s set to miss Sunday’s matchup with the Falcons. Leonard Fournette was a healthy scratch last week, but the Buccaneers will have no choice but to feature their offseason acquisition on early downs. Fournette had already built a rapport with Tom Brady on passing downs, averaging 4.1 (No. 18) targets per game, so we could be looking at a three-down RB at just $4500 this week.

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Top DFS Flex Value Plays for Week 14

by , December 13, 2020

Given his 6.0 (No. 105 among qualified wide receivers) Average Target Distance mark and history of rushing production, Curtis Samuel should dominate short-area work and get double-digit touches against this shorthanded Denver defense. He’s been among the most efficient fantasy players this season with 2.33 (No. 9) Fantasy Points per Target and a +32.2 percent (No. 9) Target Premium. The stars are aligning for Samuel to have a career day.

Stone-minimum punt plays always help relieve salary in cash. With Denzel Mims out and Jamison Crowder highly questionable, Braxton Berrios presents the best punt option across all positions. The Seahawks have given up a ridiculous 229 receptions and 2,707 yards to receivers this year, easily the most in the NFL. The Jets are massive 13.5-point underdogs, so we can project plenty of negative Game Script.

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Air Yards DFS Value Index – Week 14

by , December 12, 2020

Calvin Ridley again appears in the Paying Up section, making it three weeks in a row. Last week against a tough Saints defense, Ridley finished as the WR24 on the week with five receptions for 108 yards. He out-gained Julio Jones in both yards and Air Yards, posting 186 Air Yards to Jones’ 109 Air Yards. With Jones ruled out for Week 14’s matchup against the Chargers, Ridley will look to dominate the targets and Air Yards in the Falcons passing attack. However, his ceiling is lowered without Jones on the field.

A.J. Green has been left off the value list for a while now despite scoring high in the model. However, after 14 weeks, Green is finally priced at the stone cold minimum on DraftKings. While he appears to be dust at this point, he is still seeing plenty of snaps and routes in the Bengals offense. For a minimum price, he is a masochistic play if you are looking to pay up elsewhere.

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