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Super Bowl Preview: Cincinnati Bengals Vs. Los Angeles Rams

by Matt Kelley, February 10, 2022

The game will come down to how the offensive line can handle the pressure against Aaron Donald and Von Miller. Burrow only managed a 47.1-percent (No. 14) Pressured Completion Percentage. And for the Bengals to win, he will need to make big throws under pressure. On the other side of the coin, he ranks No. 1 in Clean Pocket Completion Percentage. He is also No. 1 with 8.8 Yards per Pass Attempt, But it helps if you’ve got talented teammates.

Now in Los Angeles, Matthew Stafford is surrounded by easily his best coaching staff and teammates. And it’s reflected in the metrics. His Touchdown Rate ranks No. 2 among quarterbacks with ten or more starts. And his 63.5 (No. 4) Total QBR puts him ahead of Patrick Mahomes. He also gets the benefit of throwing to outstanding pass catchers.

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2022 Rookie Running Back Efficiency: Jerrion Ealy

by , February 10, 2022

Mississippi Rebel Jerrion Ealy is a fun eval. Dude came into college as a 5-star recruit in football AND one of the top baseball prospects in the country. He spent three years catching a lot of passes and breaking a lot of tackles. While his production profile is underwhelming, his play-to-play ability is evident in his per touch efficiency metrics.

Jerrion Ealy is a far better receiver coming out of college than most of these guys were as prospects. He should have an easier time finding an NFL role than someone like Jaret Patterson. However, if the best player on your comps list is Darren Sproles, you probably won’t be fantasy-relevant. Ealy simply must be bigger come the Combine. With a prospect profile that doesn’t even stand out within his archetype, he’s not the droid you’re looking for.

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Leveraging Hog Rate: Finding Three 2022 Breakout Wide Receivers

by , February 9, 2022

It has become apparent that landing spot takes are not a very effective measurement of opportunity. Sure, landing spots or new coaches can smell like fantasy gold, but there are better advanced metrics that offer a closer look at who is really getting golden opportunities for your fantasy roster. Let’s find some 2022 breakout wide receivers using one of the ultimate tools of opportunity: Hog Rate.

Hog Rate alone can’t solely predict a breakout. It can certainly point you in the direction of wide receivers who have their offense’s attention while on the field. Which means more opportunities to produce fantasy points. It is no coincidence that these elite-tier guys have significant Hog Rates. So as you start drafting for 2022 and looking at trade targets, don’t forget these three names.

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Predicting Combine Measurements for College Running Backs

by , February 8, 2022

If we can’t predict how much college backs will weigh by the time they reach the NFL with any accuracy, then a nihilistic approach to pre-Combine listed weights is appropriate. And if we can predict it with accuracy but not until a player is three or four years into their college career, then not much advantage exists to be gained by paying attention early. Luckily, I’ve found that the answers to the above questions are “pretty well” and “pretty early.”

Pooka Williams and Chris Thompson were both 4-star talents who weighed 175-pounds as high school recruits. Williams was the better college player. But it’s probably not a coincidence that he went undrafted after measuring in at 170 at his Pro Day. Thompson was selected in the fifth round after being 192 pounds at the Combine. It’s unfortunate, but face it, fellas: size matters.

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Cody Carpentier’s 2022 NFL Mock Draft 4.0

by , February 7, 2022

The PlayerProfiler and RotoUnderworld Head Game Analyst, and NFL Draft Analyst Cody Carpentier is back from the Senior Bowl to bring the people version 4.0 of his 2022 NFL Mock Draft to update movement from the Senior Bowl, NFLPA Bowl, and Shrine Bowl Game.

The Worst-Kept Secret in Mobile all week, will be interested to see how Willis’s stock climbs once he runs a 4.44 40-yard dash in Indianapolis later this month. Willis was the only quarterback to take that next step at the Senior Bowl, earning all of the media and NFL scouts respect and appreciation after a dominant performance in the rain on Day 2. 

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Cody Carpentier’s 2022 All-Senior Bowl Roster

by , February 5, 2022

Say “Hello” to the 2022 PlayerProfiler All-Senior Bowl Roster, who most impressed our NFL Draft Analyst Cody Carpentier in Mobile over the past week, with not only their on-field skills but also their off-field temperaments and personalities as professionals during the week of practices. Some of these players will shine bright in the NFL, and it is our goal to uncover as many studs as possible. Thanks for following along and checking out the Top Prospects from the Reese’s Senior Bowl Practices.

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Is Gabriel Davis for Real?

by , January 29, 2022

Gabriel Davis has been a deeper threat in his career, ranking top-12 among WRs in Average Target Distance and Yards Per Reception both of his seasons in the NFL. He has also seen large red zone usage, ranking top-30 in Red Zone Targets both his seasons with 13 career touchdowns, more than Cole Beasley and Dawson Knox the last two seasons. Davis is efficient in several advanced metrics, apart from Catch Rate and Drop Rate, both of which he ranked outside the top-75 in this season.

Ultimately, Davis is an efficient receiver who garners large chunks of yardage and touchdown opportunity when he sees the ball. However, he has not received enough opportunity to see if he can be consistent as a weekly starter. His profile and ability as a more “chunk play” receiver contributes to his lesser opportunity, as he is seldom seen as a do-it-all guy like Stefon Diggs.

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The Playoff Pareto Principles: Conference Championship DFS Preview

by , January 28, 2022

The final Pareto Principles of the year is underway. This column focuses primarily on the strategy and game theory elements of DFS. I do not discuss the individual matchups of players. Instead I am basing my stances on what the field is expected to do, and how to capture a similar ceiling with a unique build.

The conference championship is no time to cling to summer romance. Since returning from injury in Week 17, Elijah Mitchell has just six catches in four games for 18 yards. He also has just one score in that time, losing high-leverage carries to Deebo Samuel and all passing downs to Kyle Juzczyk. His high carry total provides a floor but not an insurmountable one if he’s kept from the end zone.

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Making a Cocktail From the Conference Championship DFS Slate

by , January 28, 2022

There are three quarterbacks in this Conference Championship round with three stacks you can feel confident in for DFS. If you want to get spicy, you could even include Jimmy Garoppolo in hopes the 49ers can’t run the ball, George Kittle gets involved, and Deebo Samuel takes a couple of dump-offs to the house. However, in the playoffs thus far, you haven’t won money unless your quarterback put up over 30 points.

The Sazerac has two possible bases to start with, pending on who you ask. Some believe the official cocktail of Louisiana and staple of New Orleans used a cognac due to the area’s connection to French spirits. Others believe it was made with rye whiskey and is currently is the more popular build. It’s the perfect cocktail to discuss the Conference Championship for DFS. Make the base with your liquor preference as long as it’s one of the two, just as this slate will likely have two options to stack.

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AFC Championship Preview: Cincinnati Bengals at Kansas City Chiefs

by , January 27, 2022

Today, we’ll look at the AFC championship matchup between the Kansas City Chiefs and the Cincinnati Bengals, a rematch from Week 17 where Cincinnati scored in the last moments of the game and won 34-31. A key result of that victory, the Bengals won their first division title since 2009.

Once a young team with plenty of promise, the Bengals have given life to a franchise that had embodied mediocrity. Now they are four quarters away from the Super Bowl. I expect the Bengals to come out playing fast and pushing the tempo on offense; unfortunately for them, the offensive line may have trouble keeping the pace with its skill positions. Kansas City wins 35-27.

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