The following contrived dichotomy (scheduled for one fall?) is to determine which of these two players we should be drafting to our fantasy football dynasty teams, all else being equal.
His opponent, in the Blue Corner: hailing from the University of Purdue, standing in at (checks notes) 5-7, and weighing in at 181-pounds: “THE ANTMAN” Rondale Moore.
The Tale of the Tape
It’s no secret to the Underworld faithful that Marshall has been the steadiest riser throughout the process, for both fantasy and reality purposes. While those familiar with our product know that our love for Rondale is of the fantasy-twitter-breaking variety. It’s not fair that most fantasy gamers will be forced to choose between them in rookie drafts. Unless they’ve accumulated multiple early picks, there’s virtually no chance they end up with both. Making the right choice is critical in any rookie draft; nailing your first round selection is paramount to sustained dynasty success.
The easy answer is to say we need to wait to factor draft capital into the equation. Unfortunately, not everyone has that luxury. While we love both prospects and think they will both hit at the next level, it’s never a guarantee. We’re all forced to choose sides at some point. Hogan or Savage? nWo Hollywood or nWo Wolfpac? Stone Cold or The Rock?
Team Moo or Team Antman?
Full disclosure, this spot was initially reserved for Rashod Bateman. After a conversation with The DOA Josh Larky (editors note: nickname pending for our Director of Analytics), I decided to go with Marshall instead. And really this should’ve been the choice from the beginning. We’ve loved Shoddy B here at the Underworld for a long time, but we’ve also been on the Terrace Marshall train since early on in the process. It’s safe to say we will end up remaining higher on him than consensus.
— RotoUnderworld (@rotounderworld) October 26, 2020
It’s tough to understate the impressive nature of Marshall’s college production metrics, especially when put in the proper context. His 16.6-percent (23rd-percentile among qualified wide receivers) College Target Share would be much higher had he played more than seven games this past season. We also can’t ignore that 2020 saw him record more targets, receptions, receiving yards, and yards per reception than in 2019, and in five fewer games played. Again, when the full contextual picture is painted, he comes out looking even better.
Terrace Marshall finished with almost 1,600 yards and 23 Touchdowns in 28 Games playing with Justin Jefferson, Ja’Marr Chase, and Kayshon Boutte ? pic.twitter.com/TZQw3O3X8f
— RotoUnderworld (@rotounderworld) February 19, 2021
Though Ja’Marr Chase ran a 4.34 40-yard Dash at LSU’s pro day compared to Marshall’s 4.40, coming in two inches taller and four pounds heavier gives Marshall a comparable Speed Score. The 85th-percentile Burst Score doesn’t hurt either. PlayerProfiler’s Best Comparable Player feature also paints an optimistic outlook for Marshall, with Sidney Rice, Pierre Garcon and A.J. Green being the highlights. Add in the recent first-round buzz that he’s been receiving and it certainly appears to be Wheels Up.
It was August of 2019; the crew and I were in New Orleans to celebrate my wife’s 30th birthday. After a morning featuring Bottomless Mimosas, my friend James and I eloquently waxed poetic about this Rondale Moore character who played football at James’ alma mater. We spoke at length about how if he was 6-2 and 215-pounds, he would be the best wide receiver prospect we’ve ever seen, ahead of Calvin Johnson.
Wait, that wasn’t me. Damn You, Bottomless Mimosas.
While Terrace Marshall undoubtedly wins the battle of the Best Comparable Players, the fact that we’ve never seen a player like Moore makes it hard to come up with totally fair comps. T.Y. Hilton is the best and only exciting player that comes up (unless you really like Scott Miller and/or Olamide Zaccheaus), and that can be considered a reach. It still doesn’t take away from Moore’s impressive collegiate production.
Rondale Moore finished College with 11+ Receptions in 10 of 20 games ? pic.twitter.com/bzGAfPP7Zs
— RotoUnderworld (@rotounderworld) February 12, 2021
The height is far from ideal. The nature of his physical makeup will make him a supreme outlier if successful at the NFL level. His 9.4 College YPR landing in the 1st-percentile is jarring. But recording upper 90th-percentile marks in 40-yard Dash, Burst Score and Agility Score creates cause for optimism. Those marks help contribute to his 10.13 (72nd-percentile) Catch Radius, which is a freakish mark given his diminutive build. A late first-round landing spot or early day 2 draft capital would undoubtedly push his value into the proverbial stratosphere.
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While previous editions of this series over at Breakout Finder focused on players with similar builds/styles, Terrace Marshall and Rondale Moore couldn’t be more different. Both will end up with top-level Breakout Ratings once all the numbers are updated with athletic testing taken into consideration. Both have the potential to sneak into the first round of the NFL Draft if a team falls in love with them. And we’re higher than consensus across the industry on both players.
Man, this is hard.
In the end, it may be mostly due to the fact that this class lacks wide receivers with alpha-type builds, and it does go against our current rookie rankings, but I’m declaring Marshall the winner.
The Podfather celebrates Terrace Marshall’s drive toward alpha status in dynasty rookie drafts on this week’s #BackstagePass ?
— RotoUnderworld (@rotounderworld) April 4, 2021
At this stage of the proceedings, Marshall feels more likely to be the player who sneaks into the late-first. Even if both go early on day 2, Marshall’s more traditional build and skillset make him less landing spot dependent, and that’s the biggest tiebreaker in his favor. While we want to believe that Moore will be successful regardless of landing spot, the likely reality is that any team who drafts him has to do so with the correct plan in mind to maximize his abilities.
The LSU WR Factory produces another winner in this, the first RotoUnderworld edition of Red Corner, Blue Corner. Although I can’t help but feel like my expedition with the Bottomless Mimosas was trying to tell me something, and I hope ignoring it doesn’t come back to bite me in the ass.