Hello world, we are back with a look at the exciting stack options for Week 7 of this 2020 NFL Season. As per usual, I will remind everyone that the focus of this series is to utilize the outstanding advanced stats and metrics here at PlayerProfiler to identify intriguing quarterback-wide receiver combinations from the same NFL team to roster in daily fantasy sports. When stacking, we put our teams in a position to double dip on fantasy points when our QB throws to our WR. For both positions, we want Game Script to be negative for our players, so it makes sense to play teammates sharing what we expect to be Game Scripts conducive to scoring fantasy points. In this unpredictable world, there are benefits to reducing the number of games you need to “get right.”
Week 6 Recap
In what was noted as a thin QB slate, we identified several strong plays in Week 6.
Lamar Jackson headlined the group and, as predicted, was under 5-percent owned. His 30 points set up fantasy gamers well. The bulk of those fantasy points came through his own rushing though, so the love was not shared with his pass-catching teammates. We recommended Marquise Brown, who sadly only finished with 9.7 DK points.
Another recommendation was Gardner Minshew and Laviska Shenault. Minshew delivered 20 points at under 3-percent ownership, right on with what we’re looking for from a mid-priced QB. Despite receiving seven targets, Shenault did not deliver and ended up with only three receptions for 10 yards. Disappointing he wasn’t able to take more advantage of the soft Lions defense.
Finally, Ryan Fitzpatrick and DeVante Parker made up the last featured stack of the week. Fitz became a popular option as the week went on and ended up in the 15-20-percent owned range. After getting out to a huge lead against the Jets, the Dolphins let up on the gas and even got Tua Tagovailoa some work. That resulted in Fitzpatrick only putting up 18 points. Parker saw double the targets as any other Dolphin, but similar to Shenault, lacked the necessary efficiency on Sunday to put up big fantasy numbers. He finished with 6.5 points.
Justin Herbert & Keenan Allen
The first recommended stack this week consists of Justin Herbert and Keenan Allen going against Jacksonville. On DraftKings, Herbert is $6400 while Allen is $6200. Herbert has been a top 10 QB in each of his last two games before hitting the bye. He threw seven touchdowns over those two games and now ranks No. 2 among qualified quarterback with 15 Money Throws. That’s despite having his bye and not playing Week 1. With 8.5 (No. 3) Yards per Attempt and 0.53 (No. 9) Fantasy Points per Dropback, Herbert is displaying incredible efficiency for a rookie.
This week, Herbert draws a Jacksonville passing defense that we’ve been targeted this year. Their 18.3-percent Defensive DVOA per FootballOutsiders ranks last in the league. They average less than one sack per game. Herbert will have all day to throw, allowing him to continue to increase that Money Throw total and deliver fantasy points in bunches.
Last we saw Allen, he left early in Week five with a back injury after scoring a touchdown. In the three weeks prior to that, he saw double digit targets in each game. Using the bye week to get healthy, he is poised to step right back into that target magnet role as he lines up against burnable corners.
Patrick Mahomes & Tyreek Hill
Our next stack comes by way of Kansas City. Patrick Mahomes’s salary is $7400 on DraftKings, good for QB3. We’ve become accustomed to how great Mahomes is. One underrated part of his greatness is his consistency. In DraftKings scoring, he doesn’t have a game under 20 points this year. In three of his four matchups over the last two years against Denver, he’s scored at least 25 points. The floor is outstanding, and there is no question about ceiling. This year alone, he’s delivered a 40-point week and two more 30-point weeks.
Mahomes is always in play for GPP rosters. The issue is usually the challenge in stacking him. Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce are typically priced at the top of their positions. Not so this week. Hill is all the way down to $6400 (WR13). He costs $300 less than his lowest previous price and $1500 less than his peak value.
We know Hill hasn’t had that monster game yet, but don’t let recency bias get in the way here. He plays a role that will naturally produce volatility in fantasy scoring. His per-opportunity numbers still look good with 2.60 (No. 5) Fantasy Points per Target. The splash plays will come. After a few disappointing performances, capitalize on the recent negative variance to cheaply shoot for maximum upside. If you have the extra cash, throw in Kelce for the double stack, but the value is in Hill.
Matt Ryan & Julio Jones
Our final stack this week features Matt Ryan and Julio Jones. No one was happier that Jones was back on Sunday than Ryan, whose top three games this season all came in games when Jones played. It’s clear he fills an irreplaceable role on the Falcons offense. This play may feel like point chasing after each put up 30-plus last week, and I expect it to be a popular stack in a game with one of the highest point totals on the slate, but all the fundamentals are there.
First, Atlanta draws a banged up and toothless Detroit secondary in a dome. The second is price. Jones costs less than teammate Calvin Ridley this week. At $7100, Jones is outside the top 5 WRs. He suffered no reported setbacks last week in an absolutely dominant return.
Check out Julio Jones on PlayerProfiler’s Updated Weekly Rankings and Projections:
Ryan, for his own part, has everything we look for when it comes to passing metrics for a QB. Some of it is Game Script-driven, but it’s not like that will be changing anytime soon. Ryan ranks averages 40.7 (No. 3) Pass Attempts per Game, 5.2 (No. 4) Deep Ball Attempts per Game, 367.5 (No. 1) Air Yards per Game, and 9.0 (No. 5) Air Yards per Attempt. The issue has been efficiency, but we expect that to bounce back to historic norms with Julio back in the lineup.
This will be a popular game to stack, but that doesn’t mean we need to fade it. There are two tournament approaches gamers can take to mitigate the high projected ownership. We can play more players in the game for additional leverage (possibilities include Hayden Hurst, D’Andre Swift and T.J. Hockenson). Alternatively, we can eat the chalk in this game and play contrarian plays elsewhere in our lineups to get uniqueness. Not every player in a GPP-winning lineup needs to be under 2-percent owned.