Howdy everyone, welcome back to our weekly installment of Quarterback-Wide Receiver Stacks to target in daily fantasy football. As always, the aim here is to identify less popular combinations of QBs and WRs on the same NFL team to play in our daily fantasy lineups in order to gain leverage on the field by effectively doubling our points when that pair of players connect for touchdowns. To help us with that, we dig deep into the advanced stats and metrics here on PlayerProfiler.
Week 3 Recap
Week 3 was our most successful week to date. Jared Goff and Cooper Kupp formed the marquee stack in what looked to be an under the radar shootout between two potent offenses. That’s exactly what happened on Sunday. With the Rams in comeback mode for most of the game, Goff fired off passes with Kupp being his favorite target. The pair combined for 60 DraftKings fantasy points at less than 3-percent ownership for both. That’s exactly what we’re shooting for each week.
Cam Newton and N’Keal Harry were both more popular on Sunday, with ownership checking in between 5 and 10-percent. Nursing a lead the whole day against the Raiders, Newton did not throw much and was not particularly efficient (5.8 Yards per Attempt) when he did. Rex Burkhead stole the show, scoring three total touchdowns on ten targets and six carries.
Joe Burrow had a day against the Philadelphia Eagles. His 23 DK points at under 3-percent ownership is another example of what we look for here. Unfortunately, A.J. Green did not benefit from the barrage of passing attempts. Seeing a healthy dose of cornerback Darius Slay, Green finished with a disappointing five receptions for 35 yards on six targets. We said last week Green has seen ridiculous volume but lacked efficiency. On Sunday, the volume returned to Earth. Without any big plays, Green had another underwhelming fantasy day.
Nick Foles & Allen Robinson
The joke has become a cliché at this point, but Nick Foles almost certainly becomes the best quarterback Allen Robinson has ever had. This QB upgrade represents a tide that will lift all boats in Chicago, though none will benefit more than Robinson. These two showed encouraging chemistry early on last week, with Robinson receiving several targets and turning them into one (and very nearly a second) touchdown. The QB upgrade was clear to all who watched and also evident in the numbers. The advanced box score stats from Ben Baldwin’s rbsdm.com really drive that point home.
This week presents a juicy matchup for Robinson in particular. Using PlayerProfiler’s Cornerback Rankings, we see the Colts have a solid, top-15 corner in Kenny Moore. However, Moore’s 58.2-percent (No. 7 among qualified cornerbacks) Slot Rate means Robinson will instead go against the burnable Xavier Rhodes. While Rhodes has not been targeted often thus far in 2020, he still allows 1.80 (No. 45) Fantasy Points per Target. This trend continues from last year, where Rhodes allowed 2.01 (No. 70) Fantasy Points per Target and had a -34.2 (No. 76) Coverage Rating.
With a middling projected point total, and given the Colts defensive scoring stats so far, many may be scared off this game. However, those defensive stats came against the Jaguars, Vikings, and Jets. Not exactly a murderer’s row. Given the expected volume and increased efficiency in the Chicago passing game, paired with the favorable CB matchup, a Foles-Robinson stack provides tantalizing upside with low ownership.
Dak Prescott & CeeDee Lamb
Coming off that massive shootout against Seattle where almost every conceivable stack was chalk and smashed, Dak Prescott slots in at QB5 on salary. He’s nearly $1000 cheaper than Lamar Jackson. He now returns home as a favorite against the struggling Cleveland Browns.
Dak Prescott career fantasy points:
Home: 22.0 ✅
Favorite: 22.3 ✅
Home Favorite: 24.4 ✅✅
Cowboys are home favorites in Week 4.
— Matthew Freedman (@MattFtheOracle) September 29, 2020
CeeDee Lamb was the odd man out last week, with Cedrick Wilson catching two long touchdowns from the slot. With rumors of a minor injury suffered in-game, the drop in Snap Share can be explained. As a result, fantasy gamers get Lamb at $5400 again this week on DraftKings in a matchup against an imposing Browns secondary. Denzel Ward ranks No. 2 on PlayerProfiler’s Cornerback Rankings, with Terrance Mitchell checking in as the No. 22-ranked corner. However, neither play more than 4.0-percent of their snaps in the slot. Lamb will instead be paired with Tavierre Thomas who, so far, has allowed 10.9 Fantasy Points per Game and has a -62.1 Coverage Rating. While Amari Cooper and Michael Gallup draw more challenging CB matchups, expect Prescott and Lamb to connect for several splash plays this week.
Cam Newton, Julian Edelman & N’Keal Harry
The first double stack recommendation of the year includes the New England Patriots and their condensed Target Share. Last week, Cam Newton and N’Keal Harry didn’t get it going. Most of that can be attributed to Game Script taking the ball out of Newton’s hands. Facing the Kansas City Chiefs this week, Game Script will likely not be a concern for the Patriots passing offense.
In what should be a high scoring affair, target Newton (priced at QB10) and both of his leading receivers for maximum upside. Harry and Julian Edelman have combined for over 50-percent of the Patriots Target Share, which increases to almost 60-percent of the red zone targets. That red zone activity combined with Newton’s goal line rushing ability gives this stack a monopoly on Patriots touchdowns.
The reason to target both receivers rather than one is based on price and role. In a similar game state in Week 2 against Seattle, Edelman received 11 targets and Harry drew 12 looks of his own. Employing this strategy exposes fantasy gamers to more risk, but also more upside. We suspect this game will turn into a shootout. Vegas odds suggest the same. If we’re right, our rosters are exposed to all that scoring upside. Run it back with a Chiefs player to capture even more scoring upside as both teams go back and forth.
Ryan Fitzpatrick & Preston Williams
The budget stack this week is Ryan Fitzpatrick and Preston Williams. This stack costs less than $10K to pull off, and a stack this cheap requires some sacrifices. In this case, it’s Target Share. The Dolphins have clearly brought Williams along slowly while he recovers from the torn ACL suffered last season. His targets have not reached the levels he saw last year, when he averaged 7.5 targets per game. That may change this week. Seattle has hemorrhaged fantasy points to WRs this season. Russell Wilson is cooking, and it has forced other teams to do so as well. We know Fitzpatrick is capable of slinging it in a shootout. Find the cheap teammate and enjoy the show.